Seasonal peaks are both a blessing and a challenge for retailers. From Christmas and Easter to summer holidays, back-to-school and Black Friday, demand can shift dramatically, and often unpredictably. For procurement teams, the stakes are high: stockouts damage customer trust, while excess inventory erodes margins and clogs supply chains.
Managing these seasonal swings requires a procurement strategy that is agile, data-driven, and built around genuine supplier collaboration. Here’s how retailers can stay ahead…
1. Strengthen your forecasting with real data, not gut feel
Seasonal forecasting can no longer rely solely on last year’s numbers. Retailers need to layer multiple indicators to get a realistic picture of future demand:
- Historical sales data
- Real-time market trends
- Weather patterns
- Economic indicators
- Promotional calendars
- Local demographic shifts
Modern procurement teams benefit enormously from demand-planning tools that integrate data from across the business. Predictive analytics can highlight upcoming peaks, help avoid panic buying, and support procurement teams in making smarter purchasing decisions.
2. Build supplier relationships that can flex with you
In a seasonal environment, suppliers need to do more than deliver- they must be partners in agility. Retailers should focus on:
- Early visibility: Share forecasts well in advance
- Clear communication: Discuss volume expectations and constraints openly
- Flexible contracts: Include surge capacity and contingency clauses
- Dual sourcing: Reduce risk by diversifying supply
Suppliers who understand your seasonal rhythms can plan staffing, raw materials and production around your needs, reducing lead times and cost volatility.
3. Use inventory segmentation to avoid over or under-ordering
Not all products behave the same during seasonal swings. An ABC or demand volatility analysis helps identify:
- Fast-moving seasonal essentials that require early procurement
- Core staples that must never run out
- Experimental SKUs where smaller, more frequent orders reduce risk
Smart segmentation enables procurement teams to protect cash flow while still meeting customer expectations during peak periods.
4. Strengthen your logistics and fulfilment capacity
Seasonal demand puts pressure not just on stock, but on the entire logistics system. Retail procurement teams should work closely with operations to:
- Secure warehousing space early
- Build relationships with multiple carriers
- Map out delivery bottlenecks
- Use 3PLs to scale capacity temporarily
A strong logistics strategy is often the difference between a successful seasonal peak and one that overwhelms the business.
5. Review performance after every seasonal cycle
Peak seasons leave a wealth of insight behind. Retail procurement teams should always conduct a post-season review, covering:
- Forecast accuracy
- Supplier performance
- Stockouts and overstocks
- Cost efficiencies and waste
- Customer feedback
- Logistics bottlenecks
This helps refine future procurement cycles and supports continuous improvement.
How Accelerate Procurement consultancy can help
At Accelerate Procurement, our team of experienced procurement consultants support retailers in building resilient, flexible, and cost-efficient procurement strategies tailored to their seasonal needs. From demand forecasting and supplier management to logistics optimisation and cost control, our team helps retailers prepare for (and thrive during) every peak period.
If you’d like to strengthen your procurement approach for the next seasonal cycle, we’d be happy to help. Get in touch with our procurement consultancy team today.